3 Things We’re Watching: Canada’s High-Stakes Summit, Wildfire Wagers and a Real-Life K-drama

1. Can Canada close the deal?

“Canada has what the world wants” has become Prime Minister Mark Carney’s go-to economic pitch. But do investors agree? We’ll find out soon enough at the country’s first-ever Canada Investment Summit, taking place in Toronto on September 14 and 15.

Canada will have about 24 hours to make its case to an invitation-only guest list of nearly 100 investment organizations from 28 countries, collectively managing close to $120 trillion in assets. Top executives from Blackstone, BlackRock, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase are expected to be among the anticipated 250 summit attendees, along with major funds from the Middle East and Asia. Many reportedly received personal invitations from Carney, who seems to be drawing on his career in central banking and finance.¹

Hosted in partnership with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board, the summit is intended to bring more global capital into Canada. The government is looking for $500 billion of new private investment by 2030 to help boost infrastructure projects and invest in R&D.² Combined with public investment, Ottawa expects its plans to generate $1 trillion.³

The Milken Institute will kick off the big event by holding its own impressive gathering on the morning of September 14. “Global Dialogues Toronto” will bring together business leaders and investors, including RBC president and CEO Dave McKay, to discuss Canada’s economic outlook and prospects for long-term growth.⁴

The bottom line: All eyes will be on whether Ottawa can turn its A-list access into actual investment, particularly when many of the projects it hopes to promote are still taking shape. The country needs help funding more than $126 billion in projects already referred to the Major Projects Office, and there are other barriers facing these kinds of nation-building projects, such as internal regulatory hurdles.⁵

2. Prediction Markets Spreading Like Wildfire?

Prediction markets are a multibillion-dollar industry that lets you wager on almost anything – from election results and economic data to pop culture and international conflicts. You can now add wildfires to the list, although betting on these disasters is, at least for now, only possible south of the border.

When a deadly fire tore through neighbourhoods in Los Angeles in January 2025, Polymarket users wagered on how many acres would burn, how far the fire would spread and when the flames would be contained.⁶ More than $1.8 million was eventually traded on contracts tied to L.A. fires.⁷ The idea has also spread to a smaller platform, Wyldfyre, which focuses on forecasting California wildfires. Its tagline: “You can’t predict fire. But you can trade on it.” For now, Wyldfyre users trade with points rather than money.⁸

Wildfire betting is part of a broader move into climate disaster trades, from hurricanes and earthquakes to precipitation and temperature increases. Last year, $330 million was traded on Kalshi’s climate markets. This year, they’re on pace to top $1.66 billion.⁹

The bottom line: Canadians are no strangers to wildfires, but prediction markets are still relatively new territory. Until recently, access in Canada has been limited. That began changing this spring, when regulators authorized two (so far) investment dealers to facilitate trading in a limited set of event contracts, including contracts executed on foreign regulated prediction markets.¹⁰ One such platform, Kalshi from the U.S., doesn’t offer trades on wildfires, citing the potential to incentivize arson.¹¹ For its part, Polymarket has said that it provides access to information, and that closing its disaster markets won’t prevent a tragedy.¹² Numerous U.S. lawmakers are already calling for a ban on wildfire bets.¹³ With flames raging across British Columbia, Ontario and elsewhere, whether people warm to the idea remains to be seen.

3. South Korea’s billionaire-dollar divorce

South Korea’s AI-fuelled stock market has had a turbulent summer. At its centre is SK Group, the country’s second-largest conglomerate, which is involved in semiconductors, telecommunications and energy,¹⁴ and the largest divorce settlement in the country’s history. In July, a Seoul court ordered SK Group’s chair, Chey Tae-won, to pay his wife a whopping 944 billion won, or about $921 million.

The ruling raised questions about whether Chey might need to sell or borrow against SK shares to fund the cash award. Analysts didn’t expect the settlement to threaten his control of the group, whose global profile has soared with the AI boom, but investors reacted nonetheless. SK Inc. fell 3.8 per cent after the ruling, while SK Hynix, the group’s chipmaking arm, dropped 8.3 per cent. Chey apologized for causing concern¹⁵ and is appealing the ruling.¹⁶

The declines added to an already volatile month for SK Hynix. Just two weeks earlier, the company raised $36.8 billion by listing on the Nasdaq, the largest U.S. share sale by a foreign company. But the next trading day, SK Hynix’s Korean-listed shares dropped more than 15 per cent, their biggest one-day drop on record. (Some say it’s because investors wanted to take profits, while others were worried about weaker demand for the company’s chips.) Samsung also fell more than 10 per cent that day, helping to send the Kospi (the primary benchmark for South Korea’s stock market) down nine per cent and triggering a 20-minute trading halt.¹⁷

By the end of July, doubts about AI spending and growing Chinese competition sent both chipmakers and the Kospi down again, tripping another circuit breaker.¹⁸ By August, the index rebounded as enthusiasm for the AI trade returned.¹⁹

The bottom line: You might not own a Korean stock, but you could still have a stake in this story through technology stocks or broad-market funds. The recent swings show how heavily global markets now depend on a small group of companies tied to the AI boom,²⁰ and how quickly doubts about spending, competition or earnings can spread.²¹ August’s sharp recovery suggests enthusiasm remains strong, but the speed of both moves shows how sensitive the AI market has become.