3 Things We're Watching: Week of April 20

1. Why you might not want a big tax refund

Before you start mentally spending your next tax refund on a trip to Portugal, here’s something worth considering: Your refund is not a magic windfall of free money. It’s generally tax that you’ve already paid to the government through deductions from your paycheque. If you get money back, whether from a contribution to a Registered Retired Savings Plan or other tax deductions, it could mean you overpaid your taxes throughout the year.

In other words: you’re essentially getting your own money back.

Last year, the Canada Revenue Agency issued $45 billion in refunds, with the average Canadian receiving about $2,000 back.¹ If you were among them, that money might have been sitting with the government when it could have been compounding for you. In general, the sooner you put it to work, the more powerful that effect becomes.

For instance, a single $2,000 investment into a TFSA that earns an average annual return of five per cent, compounded monthly, could grow to about $3,300 after 10 years. If you were to invest that amount every year and you’d potentially be looking at around $28,000 after a decade. Plus, if you put the money in a TFSA, that growth could be tax-free. Not bad for money you may not have realized was even missing.

What we’re watching: If you evaluate your circumstances and decide that too much tax is being withheld from your pay cheques each year, you are able to ask your employer to take a little less tax from each paycheque by filling out Form T1213 (Request to Reduce Tax Deductions at Source).² If you do this, you might be able to redirect that money into investments right away rather than waiting for spring. Be careful, though, you don’t want to end up having to owe money at tax time, so consider talking to an accountant to figure out your likely tax bill.

2. The surprising volatility of gold

Driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears and a weakening U.S. dollar,³ gold has had an impressive rally for the last few years, with prices more than doubling since late 2023.⁴ Last year, the precious metal outperformed major equity benchmarks with a 65-per-cent return. According to JP Morgan, that was gold’s strongest single year since 1979.⁵ In late January, it hit a record high of around US$5,590 an ounce,⁶ and some strategists previously said it could reach USD$6,000 by the end of 2026.⁷

But gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset has been tested of late, with economic uncertainty, inflation and geopolitical tensions fuelling short-term swings in price.⁸ On January 30 alone, its price sank 9.5 per cent, marking the biggest one-day loss in decades.⁹ It did recover, climbing back above US $5,000 over the next three weeks, but by March, it had fallen below US $4,400.¹⁰ That kind of fluctuation is a good reminder that even gold doesn’t always glitter.

What we’re watching: If you’re thinking about adding gold to your portfolio, whether through stocks, funds, bullion or bars, the key is to consider how it fits in with everything else you own. Gold might play a useful role as a diversifier, and JP Morgan notes it has historically held up well when equity markets struggle.¹¹ But like any investment, it comes with risk: some days more than others, as recent volatility shows. Your time horizon and financial goals can help guide your decision.

3. Let’s not do lunch

Remember when working from home meant raiding your own fridge come lunchtime (in your pajamas)? Those days are fading fast. As return-to-office mandates have kicked in across the country,¹² many are back to buying lunch, and the sticker shock is real. One U.S. study found the average lunch in major cities now runs about USD$23.60 (about CAD$32.50) per meal,¹³ which adds up to more than CAD$7,500 a year if you’re eating out every workday. That’s no surprise, given the Canada Food Price Report 2026 found that food prices are 27 per cent higher than they were five years ago.¹⁴ And that’s before you factor in coffee.

Of course, it’s not just lunch that’s eating your paycheque. When you factor in commuting costs, work clothing and other expenses, the total cost of showing up at the office could be in the thousands, especially if you drive.¹⁵ That could shrink your budget for other things, including saving and investing.

What we’re watching: The same U.S. study noted that, despite overall price hikes, packing lunch remains the cheapest option at about USD$5.50 (CAD$7.60) per meal.¹⁶ That alone could save you more than CAD$5,900 annually compared to eating out every day. Consider meal prepping on weekends, bringing leftovers or even splitting a takeout run once a week with colleagues to save money. Some employers are also offering subsidized cafeterias or lunch allowances as part of their return-to-office package, so it’s worth asking if your boss hasn’t mentioned it yet.